Trump Paused His 50 Percent Tariff Threat, But Canada Isn't Waiting Around For Washington Anymore
Canada dodged a bullet this week. Late Tuesday, Donald Trump paused a 50 percent tariff on roughly $28 billion worth of Canadian goods, hours before it would have hit everything from lumber and cement to wine and hockey sticks. The reprieve lasts three days, tied to vague talk of reviving the Keystone XL pipeline, and Trump gave no promise that the tariffs are gone permanently.
That’s the story every outlet in the country is chasing today. It is not the story that matters most for Canada’s future.
While Ottawa fought off Washington’s latest threat, trade negotiators kept quietly working toward something bigger. Canada and India are on track to finish a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement by the end of this year, and Ottawa expects the deal to double two-way trade to $70 billion by 2030. In May, India sent the largest trade delegation it has ever dispatched to Ottawa to move the deal forward.
This turnaround did not come easily. Canada-India trade talks collapsed in 2023 after Ottawa accused New Delhi of involvement in the killing of a Sikh activist on Canadian soil, and relations stayed frozen for two years. The Globe and Mail called Trump an unwitting matchmaker for the deal, and the description fits. Every new tariff threat from Washington gives Ottawa and New Delhi one more reason to finish what they started.
India’s high commissioner in Ottawa told reporters this month that he expects the trade pact to be finalized by October or November, with a Modi visit to Canada to follow once it is signed. That is not speculation from an op-ed columnist. That is India’s own top diplomat in the country putting a date on it.
This is the actual headline. Canada is building a second major trading relationship precisely because the first one has become unreliable. A market with a $70 billion ceiling that does not come with a three-day countdown to 50 percent tariffs is worth more to Canadian economic sovereignty than another temporary reprieve from the White House.
Watch October and November. If the CEPA lands on schedule, Canada will have proven it can build serious trade relationships that do not run through Washington’s mood swings. That leverage, not this week’s tariff pause, is what actually protects Canadian jobs the next time Trump reaches for his pen.
